Nearly five months ago, when Chrystia Freeland suddenly resigned her cabinet post, I guessed that this was actually a bit of Liberal party strategy. I guessed a few things would happen:

1. PM Justin Trudeau would resign in the coming weeks. Trudeau resigned twenty days after I wrote this (and exactly three weeks after Freeland’s announcement.)
2. Chrystia Freeland would win the Liberal party nomination. I was wrong about this. Carney ran as well, and won handily on the first ballot. I forgot about misogyny.
3. Mark Carney would run in Sean Fraser’s just-vacated riding. He didn’t; he’s running in Nepean. It was a bit silly for me to think he’d run in a NS riding anyway. I got caught up in my own conspiracy theory.
4. Mark Carney would be appointed Finance Minister. See above: he aimed higher. As an aside, good luck to whoever gets to keep the Finance file (I assume Champagne has the job temporarily, but maybe I’m wrong) under a guy who’s managed two central banks.
5. With the Trudeau boogeyman gone, the Conservative platform would founder and polls would swing in the Liberals’ favour. Uh, have they ever:

When I wrote that post in mid-December it seemed like a long shot that the Liberals might win the election, let alone take a majority of seats. But that now appears to be a real possibility.

I guess we’ll know in ~36 hours.